Michigan's unemployment rate slips to 14% in April
“A year ago almost to the day, [Timothy] Madison, 48, of Novi lost his job at American Axle in Detroit as vehicle sales tanked during the Great Recession.
“A year later, Madison is cutting grass for the City of Novi for $9 an hour -- a far cry from his $28.60-an-hour wage as a UAW-represented worker on the assembly line at American Axle. Married with two teens still at home, Madison gave up his leased car and now drives a 10-year-old vehicle, one of many sacrifices.
"'It's real rough,’ he said Wednesday. ‘We had to do some major cutbacks, eliminate some things we really didn't need, like cable and all that other luxury stuff. We were out of a phone for a while, but we realized we really had to have a phone.’ Help from his mother allowed Madison to get his electricity restored when it was shut off for nonpayment.
“Against this backdrop, the slight drop to 14.0% in Michigan's unemployment rate announced Wednesday must be seen for what it is -- a tiny step on the long road to recovery for the state's labor markets.”
While the Federal Open Markets Committee revised its forecasts for a more rosy outlook, we can try taking its forecast to the bank to forestall foreclosure on their auguries.
“The April employment report also showed an increase in long-term unemployed Americans. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more rose as a percentage of all jobless to a record 45.9 percent."
Meanwhile in Georgia, like in the rest of the country, we are noting what’s marching through the country is a completely unforeseen trend: lingering, crippling (for its sufferers) long-term unemployment.
“While the unemployment rate declined 0.1 percent from March, the number of unemployed Georgians who have been out of work at least 27 weeks rose to 215,100 in April. That was a 5.1 percent increase from March and a 152 percent surge from April 2009, the Labor Department said.
“The long-term unemployed now account for 43 percent of the 489,010 jobless workers in Georgia, according to the Labor Department.
‘Although our job market is slowly improving, the continuing increase in the number of long-term unemployed Georgians is troubling,’ said state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. ‘The specter of structural unemployment is beginning to cast a long shadow across the American workplace.’”
Is it too difficult for reporters to remember that monthly job figures are never an “exact tally?” What they are is a result of a survey from the US Bureau of Labor and here by the NJ “state labor department.” When they tediously report political polls, reporters mostly allow for a “margin of error.” Such margins of error are never allowed in government statistical reporting, no matter how similar its methods are to the pollsters.
“The monthly jobs figures, however, are hardly an exact tally and often shift from month to month as more data is added. The labor department today said job losses in March were deeper than originally reported by 1,800, with 4,900 jobs lost from February to March.
“Census hiring drove public sector growth, with 2,100 temporary workers hired by the federal government.”
Maybe we should allow for a continuous census of the country; at least some people will then have jobs.
“The state's unemployment rate dropped last month for the first time in three years, and Walla Walla County's went with it, according to numbers released this morning from the state Employment Security Department.
“Washington's unemployment rate fell in April to 9.2 percent from 9.5 percent in March, thanks to an increase of about 5,800 jobs.”
That is three-tenths of one percent. Given “margins of error” that is statistically the same as remaining unchanged. Oh, and nothing mentioned about the long-term unemployed.
“The April 2009 South Dakota unemployment rate was 4.9 percent. However, the unemployment rate for April 2008 was only 2.7 percent, reflective of an economy, which had not yet been impacted by the national recession.”
The lead in this story is that the state’s unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent. Four point seven percent. That rate, if achieved nationally, would be heralded far and wide as full-employment.
I cut and pasted the below paragraph from the link above earlier this morning. Now, the seemingly contradictory note has been excised. Emailed the reporter to find out why it was removed.
“The New England Economic Partnership produced the forecast. It says that all six states are expected to see employment growth by the end of the current quarter, but the region’s unemployment rate will continue to rise to a peak of 9.3 percent by the start of 2011. Gittell says the unemployment rate is likely to continue rising because the labor force is expanding.”
At least about unemployment, we live in a world where down is up and increases mean decreases.
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